Costa Mesa Real Estate Week In Review

What Do We See In The Shadows?

The economy is on the road to financial recovery. It will be a long and hard road, but we are on our way. There are many obstacles that could cause us to break down on this road. None is more important than the concept of "shadow inventory." What is that? These are homes which the banks are not foreclosing upon because they are trying to work out solutions with present homeowners or frankly they don’t want to flood the markets all at once and depress prices. How many homes are casting a shadow over the markets? Projections vary, but suffice to say that there are several million homes that will be foreclosed upon in the next two years. That is a lot of homes. It is also good news that at least one forecaster says that investor demand is so strong that home prices will not be affected by these homes coming upon the markets.

We keep saying this and it bears repeating. Real estate led us into recession and it must lead us into recovery. There are many factors that can help "soak" up shadow inventory. The weak dollar is increasing demand from foreign investors. The tax credit is bringing more first time buyers into the market and now move-up buyers as well. Low rates are keeping homes affordable, especially when compared to renting in many markets. Government efforts at modifications are also expected to keep many in their homes. Even builders are helping by bringing less homes to the market. Not one of these is by itself enough to absorb several million homes. But if we put all these factors together, it very well may happen as the John Burns Real Estate Consulting Company has indicated. Keep in mind that all the while the population of this Nation is rising. This means that sometime in the future, there will be growth in the real estate market and our economy. In the meantime, we will navigate the long and winding road.

The Markets. Rates rose in the past week, however, this data does not reflect a downward trend which took place later in the week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending February 25, 30-year fixed rates averaged 5.05%, up from 4.93% the week before. The average for 15-year fixed rose to 4.40%. Adjustables were mixed with the average for one-year adjustables falling to 4.15% and five-year adjustables rising to 4.16%. A year ago 30-year fixed rates were at 5.07%. “Rates for 30-year fixed loans followed long-term bond yields higher and rose above 5 percent this week amid a mixed set of economic data reports” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “For instance, the January producer price index jumped well above the market consensus, but the consumer price index remained subdued and consumer confidence declined to the lowest level since April 2009, according to the Conference Board. There were also varying reports as to the current state of the housing market. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose for the third consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter, albeit at a slower rate. New home sales, however, unexpectedly slowed in January to the smallest pace since records began in 1963, and the supply of homes at the current sales rate rose to 9.1 months, the most since May 2009.” Rates indicated do not include fees and points and are provided for evidence of trends only. They should not be used for comparison purposes.

Current Indices For Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Updated February 26, 2010

The Mortgage Bankers Association is seeing signs that the foreclosure crisis is ending. “The continued and sizable drop in the 30-day delinquency rate is a concrete sign that the end may be in sight,” says Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s chief economist, in a published statement. Brinkmann said that normally there is a large spike in short-term delinquencies at the end of the year because of high heating bills and holiday expenditures. This year, there was not only no spike, but the 30-day delinquency rate actually fell from 3.79 percent to 3.63 percent. Thirty-day delinquencies have historically been a leading indicator of serious delinquencies and foreclosures, Brinkmann said. “[This] gives us growing confidence that the size of the problem now is about as bad as it will get,” he said. Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America

The Internal Revenue Service has clarified which documentation taxpayers need to submit to claim the first-time and move-up homebuyer tax credit. While the IRS is still requiring the filing of Form 5405, it is not demanding that all parties’ signatures be on the HUD-1 settlement document in areas where requiring both the buyer and the seller to sign the document isn’t common. The IRS clarification says: "In areas where signatures are not required on the settlement document, the IRS has clarified that it will accept a settlement statement if it is completed and valid according to local law. The IRS encourages those buyers to sign the settlement statement prior to attaching it to the tax return.” For repeat buyers, the IRS is seeking documentation that home buyers have lived in the previous property for a consecutive five of the past eight years. Proof can include property tax records, home owner insurance records, or interest statements. Source: Washington Post

Despite a slow market and a slight decrease in the resale value of most remodeling projects, Realtors® report that the smartest home improvement investments may also be some of the least expensive. Results from the 2009 Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report show that small-scale exterior projects are the most profitable at resale, according to estimates by Realtors® who completed a recent survey. On a national level, eight out of the top 10 projects in terms of costs recouped were exterior replacement projects that cost less than $14,000. Certain types of door and siding replacements, as well as wood deck additions all returned more than 80 percent of project costs upon resale. A steel entry door replacement, a new addition to this year’s list, recouped 128.9 percent of costs, followed by upscale fiber-cement sliding replacements at 83.6 percent. Wood deck additions recouped 80.6 percent of costs. “Once again, this year’s Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report highlights the importance of a home’s first impression,” said NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz. Source: National Association of Realtors

On Your Team,

Kurt Galitski

The Kurt Real Estate Group

Vice President, Weichman Realtors

877-957-6677