Archives for October 2011

MOvember Starts This Wednesday at Skosh Monahan’s

Kick Off Event @ Skosh Monahan’s this Wednesday (10/26), 4:30 to 7pm ish.  Mo Sistas Welcome  (See attached)

·         Official sign up

·         Kids eat Free

·         $12.95 Top Sirloin Dinner

·         Get informed & motivated

 

Please read my column about my cancer story : http://newportindy.com/2011/10/24/eco-moms%e2%80%99-lunch-solutions/

 

After a very successful rookie season, TeamNuclear.com  is back.  If you are receiving this email, you have been invited to join the squad again this year.  While having fun is certainly in the cards, raising awareness and some serious $dough$ is our top priority.

 

For those of you that don’t know, Movember is a charity event held during November each year.  At the start of Movember guys register with a clean shaven face. The Movember participants, known as Mo Bros, then have the remainder of the month to grow and groom their Mo (Australian slang for moustache), raising money and awareness along the way for men’s health and the fight against prostate cancer.

Movember culminates at the end of the month at the Gala Partés (Los Angeles & Skosh Monahan’s). These glamorous and groomed events will see Tom Selleck, Hulk Hogan and Borat look-a-likes battle it out for their chance to take home the prestigious Man of Movember title.

But it’s not all fun and games, so why the extreme behavior?

Men lack awareness about the very real health issues they face, have an attitude that they have to be tough……”a real man” and are reluctant to see a doctor about an illness or to go for regular medical checks.

The aim of Movember is to change these attitudes and make men’s health fun by putting the Mo back on the face of American men while raising some serious funds for the number one men’s health issue, prostate cancer. Prostate cancer is the most common non-skin cancer in the US with one in six American men developing the disease and 27,000 men dying of the disease every year.

Expectations of TeamNuclear.com this year are as follows:

 

  1. Find out your PSA level (awareness) – You have to go to the doctor for that.
  2. Actively raise money (tax deductable) through whatever means necessary.
  3. 2011 GOAL is $85,000.00.
  4. Recruit 3 members (friends, family, co-worker, neighbor etc.) to actively participate in Movember and become a proud member of TeamNuclear.com.

 

To join/re-join TeamNuclear.com go to http://www.movember.com/m/579370

 

For those of you who I call my friend I challenge you to join me in finding ways to change the face of men’s health.

 

At the end of Movember, TeamNuclear.com will be attending the Los Angeles (tbd) and Skosh Monahan’s event with a shave party.  Applications for Team Nuclear and Movember rules are attached to this email.

 

If you cannot attend, please consider a donation:

·         Visit here to DONATE

·         Or contact me and I can find ways for you to support Movember

·         Sign up to grow a mustache and get donations as a part of TeamNuclear.com, with above link

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Real Estate Week In Review

In This Issue

Last Week in Review:The Fed made headlines, plus inflation is heating up!Forecast for the Week: Some key reports on housing, plus the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation and news from Europe could move the markets.

View: Ever feel like you ramble when you leave voicemails? Check out these tips for surefire ways to leave effective messages.

Last Week in Review
When the Fed talks, people listen.And last week, the Fed made headlines when Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo called for the Fed to engage in another round of Mortgage Bond purchases…or in other words, another round of Quantitative Easing (QE3). Read on to find out what this could mean for the housing market and home loan rates. In order to really have an impact on housing, the Fed would have to announce something significant to get people to buy a home. Why? Because even now, with rates at historically low levels and incredible affordability levels, the sales pace in housing is tepid, due to structural problems in the labor market, which the Fed can’t fix.

In fact, there is a lot to consider before the Fed starts expanding their balance sheet, and the biggest concern is rising inflation. Contrary to what the Fed has said about it moderating, year-over-year inflation is on the rise. The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by a whopping 0.8% in the month of September, elevating year-over-year wholesale prices by a hot 6.9%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 0.3%, and while this was inline with estimates it pushed the year-over-year number to 3.9%. This is significant because the year-over-year figure was just 1.6% in January.

Remember, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates. The concept is very simple: If inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the lost buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates move higher.

And let’s not forget the ongoing drama out of Europe. French and German leaders will hold two summits in the span of four days to come up with a resolution to the European debt crisis. Whichever way this news goes could have a real effect on the markets, including Bonds and home loan rates.

With all the news to come this week, it’s still important to remember that now remains a great time to purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates are still near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week
Look for some key reports on the housing market, which come after last week’s better-than-expected Housing Starts and the softer numbers from Existing Home Sales.

  • New Home Sales are set to be delivered on Wednesday. That number has been hovering near record lows, so the markets will be anxious to see if there’s any indication of an improvement. Also this week, Pending Home Sales will be released Thursday.
  • Also on Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims will be released as usual. Plus, the first reading on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the 3rd quarter will be released. Overall, the estimates don’t appear as if the economy is hitting on all cylinders yet.
  • The markets will see how the American people are holding up in this economy with Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment on Tuesday and Friday, respectively.
  • Ending the week, Friday’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s favored inflation measure, is sure to garner some attention.

In addition to those reports, keep an eye on the news. One story that could gain some attention is news that the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and the Obama administration will submit proposals to Congress to help the housing market for those homeowners who are underwater.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates stayed in a tight range last week. I’ll be watching closely to see how the markets react to Fed Governor Tarullo’s call for QE3, the news out of Europe, and the economic reports of the week.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 21, 2011)
Japanese Candlestick Chart
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
Don’t Say Another Word!5 Secrets to Leaving More Effective Voice Messages

People are busy. That means, even with the wide variety of technical products developed to keep us in touch, it’s sometimes hard to get a hold of people. In those instances, we find ourselves transported back to the tried-and-true technology of the 1980s—that is, leaving a message after the beep.

Same Old, Same Old

While the technology has changed from tapes to megabytes, the basic concept of a voice message remains the same. You talk; it records; people listen.

Sadly, that’s not the only thing that’s the same. Many people still don’t know how to leave a message that provides information but also establishes a compelling reason for the listener to call back.

Use These Tips Today!

The following tips can help you be more effective and get better results with voice messages:

1. Don’t Talk So Much. You have a limited window to make your point. That means you can’t provide a lot of background information or cover multiple topics.

Before you call, make sure you have a singular focus to mention if you get the person’s voicemail. Then, highlight that important point, and leave the rest of your points for the actual follow-up discussion.

2. Focus on a Problem. To put it bluntly: People don’t want to hear about you; they want to hear about themselves.

So before you call, make sure you’ve thought about the person on the other end—including what she cares about, what she spends her time on, as well as what she wishes she could spend her time on instead. You could even try to imagine why she was busy and couldn’t answer the phone. Or imagine where she’s about to rush off to as soon as your message ends.

Based on those ideas, craft a simple, focused message that hits on ONE major problem or issue that the listener has.

3. Everyone Likes a Good Mystery. Once you’ve focused on a single overriding problem, resist the temptation to go into your sales pitch about solving it. For one thing, the listener probably doesn’t have time (or want) to listen to your pitch. For another, if you give your pitch, what reason do they have to call you back?

Instead, only allude to the idea that a solution does exist…but don’t go into detail. Leave some mystery. That’s your hook for getting them to actually call you back…because now they actually have a reason to!

Finally, state a number the person can reach you at and say you’d like to tell/give them some information by chatting for a couple of minutes. You can even give them a time frame (such as saying they can call you back by a certain day or time) to help create a sense of urgency about solving the mystery you’ve established in your message.

4. Energy and Enthusiasm. Nobody wants to listen to a person who’s boring or sounds bored.

The same is true with voice messages. After all, if you don’t have energy when talking about something, why should the listener have the energy to call you back?

So before you call, take a second to raise your energy level. Some experts recommend standing up when making a call or smiling while talking on the phone, as a way to subtly convey a pleasant, energetic tone.

5. Phone Home. It’s not enough to practice in your head. It’s not even enough to practice out loud. You need to actually leave some practice messages.

So here’s what you do: call your home phone and leave some test messages. You can even try a few different approaches. When you get home, take notes about what worked and what you want to improve. Then, try the same process the next day or even every couple of months to make sure you’re still effective.

Remember: If you don’t want to listen to yourself or don’t feel compelled to call back, then why would anyone else?

By following these tips and constantly working to improve your voice message skills, you can help increase your productivity and the number of responses you receive.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 24 – October 28

Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Tue. October 25 10:00 Consumer Confidence Oct 46.0 45.4 Moderate
Wed. October 26 08:30 Durable Goods Orders Sept -1.0% -0.1% Moderate
Wed. October 26 10:00 New Home Sales Sept 300K 295K Moderate
Thu. October 27 08:30 Pending Home Sales Aug -1.0% -1.2% Moderate
Thu. October 27 08:30 GDP Chain Deflator Q3 2.5% 2.5% Moderate
Thu. October 27 08:30 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q3 2.2% 1.3% Moderate
Thu. October 27 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 10/22 403K 403K Moderate
Fri. October 28 08:30 Personal Income Sept 0.3% -0.1% Moderate
Fri. October 28 08:30 Personal Spending Sept 0.6% 0.2% Moderate
Fri. October 28 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE Sept 0.1% 0.1% HIGH
Fri. October 28 08:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE YOY NA 1.6% HIGH
Fri. October 28 08:30 Employment Cost Index (ECI) Q3 0.6% 0.7% HIGH
Fri. October 28 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Oct 57.5 57.5 Moderate
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.
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Real Estate Week In Review

In This Issue
Last Week in Review: Good news at home and abroad impacted the markets and home loan rates last week. Find out how.

Forecast for the Week: Earnings season is in full swing, plus look for big news on manufacturing, housing, and inflation.

View: Wondering about the outlook for the housing and mortgage markets in 2012? Be sure to read the article below.

Last Week in Review
“It’s a small world after all.” And that proved especially true last week, as our markets were impacted by news at home and news from overseas. Here are the highlights.

First, there was some good news on the economic front in the U.S. as Retail Sales for September rose by 1.1%, above the 0.6% expected and the highest increase in seven months. Remember good economic news typically benefits Stocks at the expense of Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, to which home loan rates are tied), as investors move their money from the safety of Bonds into Stocks to try and take advantage of gains.

And good news here wasn’t the only thing that pressured Bonds and home loan rates last week. The European Central Bank (ECB) said they will announce a plan by early November for addressing the Greek debt crisis and make recapitalizing their banks a priority. As part of this plan, the International Monetary Fund is going to dedicate more resources to help the European debt crisis. A lot of money is needed to make investors feel confident that the debt crisis will be contained, so investors saw this as positive news.

So what does this mean for Bonds and home loan rates? Should the overall present optimistic tone continue, Bonds and home loan rates could face additional pressure. However, if there is pessimistic or uncertain news, investors may return to the safe haven of Bonds, meaning home loan rates could benefit. We did see a little of this trend last week when there was word that China’s exports came in lower than expectations, which brought concern that global growth could continue to slow.

Either way, the volatility is sure to continue so the most important thing to remember is that now is still a great time to purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week

Manufacturing, inflation, and housing reports dominate the news this week:

  • The manufacturing sector accounts for one-quarter of the economy, so it’s especially important during the current economic situation. This week, the New York State Empire Manufacturing Index as well as Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization will be released on Monday. Later in the week, the Philadelphia Fed Index will be reported on Thursday.
  • Inflation news from the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be delivered on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. The last report on consumer inflation was a bit hotter than expected, so Bond market players will be closely watching those reports.
  • Housing Starts will be reported on Wednesday and on Thursday Existing Home Sales will be delivered.
  • The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be released on Thursday. As of last week’s report, they continue to remain above the 400,000 level.

Plus, earnings season is in full swing this week. Some big names reporting earnings are Citigroup, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, Apple, and AT&T. If the reports come in better than expected, it could push investing dollars over to the Equity markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates faced pressure last week but remained above a key technical level. I’ll be watching the markets closely this week to see what happens.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 14, 2011)
Japanese Candlestick Chart
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
The Housing and Mortgage Markets in 2012

Last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its outlook for the housing and mortgage markets in 2012. Overall, the news is mixed, but there’s some good news to glean out of it. Here are three positive elements in the MBA forecast that you should know about:

1. Home Sales Steady Before Slight Increase

The MBA expects total existing home sales will stay around the 4.9 million unit pace for 2011 and 2012. But in 2013, the MBA expects home sales to increase slightly to 5.2 million units, as the broader economy recovers.

New home sales are expected to be similar to the overall trend. As the MBA stated in its release: “The recovery in the new home sales will have a comparably slow start…but will show some meaningful increases in 2013.”

2. Slight Growth in Home Purchases

Despite an expected decrease in refinances, the MBA forecasts some slight growth in the number of mortgages for home purchases. Specifically, the MBA anticipates home loans for purchases to increase to $412 Billion in 2012, which would be up from the anticipated 2011 total of $400 Billion.

Better still, the MBA expects home loans for purchases to jump significantly to $700 Billion in 2013 as the economy, home sales, and home prices are all anticipated to pick up.

3. Rates to Remain Low

Overall, fixed home loan rates are expected to remain low by historical standards. The MBA expects rates to end 2011 around a 4.5 percent average, and then possibly dropping slightly to 4.4 percent at some point in 2012. But by 2013, the MBA expects rates to climb back up to 4.9 percent – which is still low by historical standards but does indicate a change in direction.

As always, forecasts can change based on numerous factors not just in the U.S., but also in the global markets. And while the MBA forecast does contain some negative aspects for the markets, it does hold some slightly positive aspects as well.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 17 – October 21

Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Mon. October 17 08:30 Empire State Index Oct NA -8.82 Moderate
Mon. October 17 09:15 Industrial Production Sept NA 0.2% Moderate
Mon. October 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Sept NA 77.4% Moderate
Tue. October 18 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Sept NA 0.0% Moderate
Tue. October 18 08:30 Core Producer Price Index (PPI) Sept NA 0.1% Moderate
Wed. October 19 02:00 Beige Book Moderate
Wed. October 19 08:30 Building Permits Sept NA 620K Moderate
Wed. October 19 08:30 Housing Starts Sept NA 571K Moderate
Wed. October 19 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Sept NA 0.2% HIGH
Wed. October 19 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Sept NA 0.4% HIGH
Thu. October 20 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 10/15 NA NA Moderate
Thu. October 20 10:00 Existing Home Sales Sept NA 5.03M Moderate
Thu. October 20 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Index Oct NA -17.5 HIGH
Thu. October 20 10:00 Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI) Sept NA 0.3% Low
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.
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Real Estate Week In Review

For the week of Oct 10, 2011 — Vol. 9, Issue 41

In This Issue
Last Week in Review:The Jobs Report for September is in…was it full of good surprises or bad ones?Forecast for the Week:A holiday-shortened week is ahead, with two important reports coming on Friday.View: Stress is no laughing matter…or is it? Read on to find the answer.
Last Week in Review
People say that “life is full of surprises.”  And indeed, last week’s Jobs Report contained several surprises. Read on to find out if they were good or bad…and what they meant for home loan rates.Overall, the Jobs Report wasn’t great, but it did surprise by being better than anticipated. One thing that wasn’t a surprise was the unemployment rate which held steady at 9.1%. But the headline number came in at 103,000 jobs created, which was better than expectations of 60,000 and even higher than some of the more frothy expectations. In addition, 137,000 jobs were created in the private sector, which offset more government job losses and which was a lot better than the 83,000 private job gains expected.Another surprise in the report was the significant upward revisions, which added 99,000 jobs to what was previously reported in prior months, and this added to the positive tone of the report. These upward revisions really change a very pessimistic jobs picture to something a bit more optimistic. For instance, last month the Jobs Report showed zero job creations and now that figure has been revised to show 57,000 jobs created. Once again, these aren’t great numbers—but they are better than bad, and they tell us that the economy is not in a recession…at least for now.

So, what did all of this mean for home loan rates? It’s important to remember that when our economy is struggling, our Bond Market usually benefits as investors seek a safe haven for their money. And since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, our home loan rates are sometimes at their best when our economy is struggling. In a way it makes sense…in times of economic struggle, good home loan rates can help kick start our economy in other areas.

Yet, when good or better than expected economic news hits the wires, like it did with Friday’s Jobs Report, investors often move their money out of Bonds and into Stocks in an attempt to take advantage of these gains. And that’s a big reason why we saw Bonds and home loan rates worsen late last week.

The most important thing to remember is that now is still a great time to purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.

Forecast for the Week
There aren’t a lot of economic reports in this holiday-shortened week, with the Bond Market closed Monday for Columbus Day (Stocks are open for a regular session). Be sure to look for:

  • On Tuesday, the Meeting Minutes from the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released and it could garner some attention.
  • The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be released on Thursday. Last week’s initial jobless claims crept back up to just above 400,000 so it will be important to see which way this week’s numbers move.
  • Investors will also be focusing in on the Retail Sales report for September, which is due out on Friday. Last Thursday it was reported that September sales for retailers, which is a separate report, were solid—showing a 5.1% year-over-year gain from the 23 largest retailers due to back-to-school sales.
  • Also on Friday is the Consumer Sentiment Index, so we’ll get an idea about how consumers are feeling about the economy.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates worsened last week due to several factors. I’ll be keeping a close eye on which way they move this week.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 07, 2011)
Japanese Candlestick Chart
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
Anxiety and Stress Are No Match for a Good LaughWhether you’re stressed about a deal at work, anxious about an upcoming meeting with a client, or just feeling under the weather, laughter can be the best medicine.But why? What really happens that makes laughing so beneficial? Doctors and scientists have some ideas about the benefits of laugher:

Stress—There’s actually a physical reason that laughter reduces stress. In addition to being a great emotional release, laughter reduces the number of stress hormones (such as cortisol and epinephrine) in your body and helps boost good hormones like endorphins.

Blood Flow—Scientists have found that blood vessels function healthily when people watch comedies, which means they expand and contract more easily and help blood flow normally. This is in stark contrast to the tightened blood vessels that were found in people after watching a drama. In short, laughter improves blood flow, which helps prevent heart attack and heart disease.

Cholesterol Levels—Recently, researchers have found that people with Type 2 Diabetes who watched funny videos for at least 30 minutes each day had better “good cholesterol” levels after just two months.

Heart and Abs—It turns out that laughing is a lot like exercising. A good laugh can increase your heart rate, exercise your diaphragm, and even contract your stomach muscles.

Calories—With the similarities between laughter and exercise, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that laughing helps you burn calories. In fact, one study found that 50 calories are burned in 10 to 15 minutes of laughter.

Immune System—There’s also evidence that laughter helps boost antibodies, making your system better prepared to fight viruses. So, a little laughter not only makes you feel better in the short term, but also can help you remain healthier in the long term.

In addition to all of these physical reactions and benefits, laughing is beneficial for your mental health too. It’s a great anti-depressant… not to mention a great way to interact with friends, family, and even clients while you strengthen your social relationships.

Economic Calendar for the Week of October 10 – October 14

Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Tue. October 11 02:00 FOMC Minutes Sept NA NA HIGH
Thu. October 13 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 10/8 406K 401K Moderate
Thu. October 13 08:30 Balance of Trade Aug -$46.1B -$44.8B Moderate
Fri. October 14 08:30 Retail Sales Sept 0.6% 0.0% HIGH
Fri. October 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Sept 0.3% 0.1% HIGH
Fri. October 14 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Oct 60.0 59.4 Moderate
The material contained in this newsletter is provided by a third party to real estate, financial services and other professionals only for their use and the use of their clients. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness and as a result, there is no guarantee it is without errors.
As your mortgage professional, I am sending you the MMG WEEKLY because I am committed to keeping you updated on the economic events that impact interest rates and how they may affect you.
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